For just the second time in history, all four men's top seeds have advanced to the national semifinals at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Saturday's first semifinal matchup will feature two powerhouse teams from the Southeastern Conference: Auburn (32-5) and Florida (34-4). The second contest will showcase Duke (35-3) and Houston (34-4), all vying for a place in the College Basketball Championship Game in San Antonio.
Duke (+110) is the favorite to cut down the nets as the 2025 men's college basketball national champions, according to BetMGM. Florida (+275) has the second-best odds and is followed by Houston (+400) and Auburn (+525). Duke opened the season with +1300 odds to win the national championship with Houston (+1600), Auburn (+3000), and Florida (+4000).
Auburn will go as far as standout big man Johni Broome and their elite defense can take them. Bruce Pearl's squad opened the season with 27 wins in 29 games and was the best team in the country before posting a 1-3 card in their last four games heading into March Matchups.
Broome is tallying 18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists for a team that fell apart defensively down the stretch. The reigning SEC Player of the Year has been inconsistent in the tourney with a combined 22 points in Auburn's first two games. However, the 6-foot-10 senior is averaging 23.5 points in his previous two outings.
Chad Baker-Mazara is the second-leading scorer for Auburn and is averaging 12.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists this season. The 25-year-old is a fiery competitor whose passion for the game led to an ejection in the opening round of last year's tournament, and again in the regular season finale against Alabama.
The backcourt duo of Tahaad Pettiford and Miles Kelly are both averaging 11.6 points. A true freshman, Pettiford poured in a combined 43 points in wins over Creighton and Michigan to reach the regional championship games. Kelly opened the tournament with 23 points against Alabama State but has tallied just 18 points over his previous three outings.
Senior Denver Jones is an elite perimeter defender who also contributes 10.7 points. Auburn excels at defending the 3-point line and with Broome and Dylan Cardwell patrolling the paint, they are excellent at limiting easy points.
Auburn is a difficult team to beat when Broome is cooking and the team are protecting the rim without getting into foul trouble. If Pearl can work his defensive magic to slow down a deep and talented Florida squad, Auburn could advance to the title game.
Head coach Todd Golden's high-octane lineup is 16-1 in their last 17 games and is paced by senior guards Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. Florida sank 13 3s against Auburn's SEC-best 3-point defense and led by 21 points before earning a nine-point victory over Auburn in early February.
Clayton Jr., a first-team All-American, averaged 17.2 points during the regular season and has scored 23-plus points in three of Florida's four tournament games. Since Florida’s last setback on February 25, the 22-year-old has compiled 20.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting 43% from beyond the 3-point line.
Martin and Richard have chipped in 14.5 and 13.7 points, respectively, and have also combined for 9.4 rebounds for a team that can score in bunches. Martin drilled a pair of 3-point bombs and finished with 18 points to help Florida eliminate Connecticut in the second round. Richard tallied 15 points in tourney wins over UConn and Maryland.
Sophomores Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh provide the size and depth inside to cause problems for Broome. Condon is a 6-foot-11 Australian who is averaging 11.4 points and eight rebounds, while Haugh is posting 9.1 points and six boards. Another second-year player, Rueben Chinyelu, is tallying six points and 6.5 rebounds, while junior Denzel Aberdeen scored 12 points against Maryland.
Florida has all the ingredients to claim the program's third national championship. Florida are adept at going on game-changing runs and have a wealth of inside and outside playmakers that should dispose of Auburn to reach their first title game since 2007.
Prediction: Florida
Duke rolls into the last four riding a 15-game winning streak and is the betting favorite to capture the program's first national championship in a decade, according to popular college basketball betting sites. Third-year coach Jon Scheyer's squad is led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who topped Duke in scoring (19.4), rebounds (7.6), assists (4.2), steals (1.5), and blocks (1.3).
While the 6-foot-9 Flagg enjoyed a stellar campaign, Duke also boasted the tallest team in D-l basketball this season with 6-foot-6 guard Sion James being the shortest player in the starting lineup. Freshman Kon Knueppel is a 6-foot-7 guard who posted 13.7 points a game, including a career-high 28 points against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament.
Tyrese Proctor is a 3-point sniper who is averaging 12 points an outing. The 6-foot-6 Aussie scored 25 points on 7-of-8 shots behind the 3-point arc in a lopsided win over Baylor to reach the regional final.
Two more first-year players, 7-foot-2 Sudanese big man Khaman and 6-foot-6 Isaiah Davis, are also key contributors. Maluach is averaging eight points and 6.6 boards, while Davis is tallying 7.7 points.
Duke are one of the top offensive squads in the country with a 58.5% 2-point field goal percentage, 38.6% 3-point percentage, and a 79% free-throw percentage. Duke is also an elite defensive group that has limited three out of four tournament foes to 66 or fewer points.
With all four top seeds advancing to the Alamodome, the squad will have to earn its sixth national title. However, Duke has the size and talent to reach the pinnacle of men's college basketball.
Houston have won 17 straight games and feature the nation's best 3-point shooting squad. Kelvin Sampson's veteran-laden team has reached the last four for the second time and has the talent to advance to the title game for the first time in 40 years.
Houston's talented guard LJ Cryer leads Houston with 15.3 points a game, including 42.4% from beyond the arc. Cryer drilled six 3-pointers en route to a 30-point barrage to eliminate Gonzaga. Cryer's backcourt mate, Milos Uzan, averages 10.9 points and shoots 45.2% from behind the 3-point line.
Emanuel Sharp and J'Wan Roberts are two key playmakers for the squad. Sharp has posted 11.8 points a game this season but is only 9-for-27 from behind the arc. Roberts has tallied 11.1 points and 6.4 rebounds and grabbed 12 boards in Houston's narrow win over Purdue.
Houston has averaged nearly 10 3-pointers per game in the college basketball tournament and will look to use its elite defensive pressure to disrupt the offensive plays of a talented but youthful Duke squad.
Houston will ride or die shooting 3s, and if Houston can disrupt Duke's young shooters, Sampson & Co. will advance to the championship game.
Prediction: Houston
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