Quarterback Quandary: Analyzing Daniel Jones' Pricey Performance

Daniel Jones New York Giants
Published by NYSB Staff
Last Updated: 23. Nov 2023.

Daniel Jones was on top of the world this past spring. The New York Giants quarterback signed a four-year, $160 million contract extension after leading the G-Men to their first postseason berth in six years. The deal made Jones a top-10 paid NFL quarterback, but eight months later, the Giants have a terrible case of buyer's remorse.


Jones' Early Success and Subsequent Decline

A controversial sixth-round pick in the 2019 draft, Jones had his best season last year with 3,205 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. More importantly, the injury-prone quarterback did not miss a game due to injury for the first in his career and committed just eight turnovers. But the 2023 season has been a nightmare for the former Duke standout.

New York won just once in the six games that Jones was under center this season. The 26-year-old tallied just two touchdown passes with six interceptions before missing three games with a neck injury. He returned to action in Week 9 and played 21 snaps before suffering a season-ending knee injury. 

Although Jones' future with the Giants is uncertain, the beleaguered quarterback refuses to feel sorry for himself and expects to return next season stronger than ever.

"You put a lot into the season. You put a lot into preparing to play, and to get it taken from you through an injury is definitely tough," Jones said. "That's real, and that's something that you deal with as a player, but it's part of the game at this level. At any level, really, it's something that you have to deal with and part of it.

"I understand that and it's unfortunate, but I can't afford to feel sorry for myself or sulk. It's part of it, and I'll be fine. I'll bounce back, attack the rehab process like I have anything else and come back stronger."


Financial Implications of Releasing Jones

To say that the Giants brass erred in rewarding Jones with a mammoth contract after only one decent campaign is an understatement. Barring a miraculous late-season turnaround, New York will be able to draft a franchise-caliber quarterback in next year's draft. But moving on from Jones will come at a significant financial cost.

If the Giants release Jones, the team will eat $69.315 million in dead money. New York would have to eat $47.105 million if they made him a post-June 1 cut. Either way, the Giants will earn zero savings.


Comparative Analysis: Jones vs Other Quarterbacks

Jones' performance this season confirmed that the franchise has to go in a different direction. His 37.2 Quarterback Rating ranked 28th in the league and was worse than several young signal-callers, including Kenny Pickett (37.4), Desmond Ridder (39.4), Sam Howell (47.2), and C.J. Stroud (62.2).

Although Jones has the same $40 million annual salary as Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, his production is not even in the same area code. 

Jones posted 884 passing yards in five complete games with two touchdowns and six interceptions. Stafford tallied 1,452 passing yards with five scores and an equal number of picks, while Prescott threw for 1,061 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. 


Cost Analysis of Touchdown Passes



Stats Over 5 Complete Games 


Annual Salary

YDS

TD

INT

Daniel Jones

$40 million

805

2

6

Matthew Stafford

$40 million

1,452


5

5

Dak Prescott

$40 million

1,061

5

4


Stafford, playing for a Rams squad that has won just three times in eight outings, has thrown a touchdown in all but one game he has played up to week 9. Prescott has delivered scoring strikes in all but one game this season, including seven touchdown passes over the past two weeks. Jones failed to pass for a score in five of his six starting assignments.



Number of Touchdowns Achieved 

Game Log

Daniel Jones 

Matthew Stafford

Dak Prescott

Week 1 

0

0

0

Week 2 

2

1

2

Week 3 

0

1

1

Week 4 

0

1

1

Week 5 

0

2

1

Week 6 

-

1

1

Week 7

-

1

-

Week 8 

-

1

4

Week 9 

0

-

3


Up to Week 9, Prescott has thrown for 13 touchdowns this season, which costs Jerry Jones $3.07 million every time the Cowboys hit paydirt via the air. But that is a bargain compared to what New York paid Jones for a touchdown pass this year.

Jones received a $36 million signing bonus and has a base salary of $9.5 million this season. Thus, the Giants coughed up a whopping $22.75 million for each touchdown pass their starting quarterback racked up this season. 

New York also paid Jones $2.07 million per quarter and $421,296 for each completion. Perhaps this explains why Jones was optimistic in his first public comments since suffering the season-ending injury.

"The goal is to be ready and fully healthy as soon as possible. I think I'm focused on what I'm doing right now and trying to get my knee ready for the surgery and ready for the process to come back stronger," Jones said. "So, in terms of my future, and what I'm thinking about it, it's to attack this process and come back stronger, and a better football player in the future."


Comparing Rookie Contracts and Performance

A trio of quarterbacks playing on their rookie contracts exposes how grossly the Giants overpaid Jones this past offseason. 



Average Annual Salary

Touchdowns to Week 9 

(Projected Touchdowns)


Cost per Touchdown

(Projected Cost per Touchdown)

Daniel Jones

$40 million

(3)

$20 million 

($13.3 million)

Tua Tagovailoa

$7.57 million

19 

(36)

$398,421 

($210,277)

C.J. Stroud

$9.07 million

14 

(30)

$647,857 

($302,333)

Trevor Lawrence

$9.19 million

(19)

$1.02 million

($483,684)


Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa earns an average annual salary of $7.57 million. The fourth-year veteran leads the NFL with 19 touchdown passes and is ranked sixth with 2,609 passing yards. Miami is currently paying Tagovailoa $398,421 for each touchdown pass, which is significantly less than what the Giants paid Jones this year.

The second overall pick in this year's draft is performing at a level Jones has never attained. Stroud has led the Texans to a 4-4 record and needs just two more victories to reach six wins, which Jones has done only once in five seasons. Stroud is currently being paid $647,857 per touchdown pass but is on pace for 30 scores through the air, which will reduce the cost to $302,333.

The rookie, who has an average annual salary of $9.07 million, tops the league with just one interception in 279 pass attempts. Stroud is ranked third with an impressive 283.8 passing yards per game and has tossed two or more touchdowns in five games this season. 

Trevor Lawrence has led the Jaguars to a 6-2 card this season. The third-year quarterback has an average annual salary of $9.19 million and needs four more victories to tie Jones with 22 career wins. 

A Pro Bowler in 2022, Lawrence has thrown a scoring pass in all but one game this season. Incredibly, the 2021 top overall pick needs 16 touchdown passes over the final nine games of the regular season to equal Jones' 62 career scoring strikes in just three seasons. 


The Giants' Financial Challenge and Jones' Future

The Giants have dug themselves a hole that will have serious financial ramifications. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. In all likelihood, New York will have a top-5 pick at the 2024 NFL Draft. And while Jones will be back next year, the writing is on the wall. The Giants will release Jones in 2025. 

All good things must come to an end. But how quickly Jones fell from the top of the world is stunning.




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