Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski - Odds, Tips & Predictions for UFC 294

Featherweight titleholder Alexander Volkanovski will replace Charles Oliveira in a lightweight championship bout against Islam Makhachev at UFC 294. 

The five-round fight will take place on Saturday, October 21, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

UFC 294
	Lightweight Main Event
Islam Makhachev 24-1-0	Vs	Alexander Volkanovski 26-2-0
31	Age	35
5.8ft	Height	5.5ft
155 lbs	Weight	145 lbs
70.5 in	Reach	71.5 in
3/10	Odds To Win	37/20
Sat, 21 Oct, 2023 - 2pm ET Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
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Makhachev (24-1) has won his last 12 fights and has not tasted defeat since 2015. The Russian has submitted four of his previous six opponents and finished off three matches in two rounds or fewer until going the distance with Volkanovski at UFC 284 to retain his lightweight belt.

Volkanovski (26-2) reeled off 22 straight wins before losing to Makhachev in a thrilling fight in Perth. The Australian rebounded in July with a third-round stoppage against Yair Rodríguez at UFC 290 to unify the featherweight titles.

In the co-main event, No.4 ranked Khamzat Chimaev will battle No. 1 ranked Kamaru Usman instead of Paulo Costa in a middleweight bout. Costa was scrapped after having surgery on his elbow a few weeks ago and has now seen four of his last six fights canceled.

Chimaev (12-0) scored an opening round submission 11 months ago against Kevin Holland at UFC 279. The Chechen-born fighter is undefeated in the UFC with three submissions, two knockouts, and a unanimous decision.

Usman (20-3) will make his middleweight debut and tallied 19 consecutive wins before suffering back-to-back losses against Leon Edwards. The Nigerian is an elite fighter who can dominate opponents on his feet or on the mat.

Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Odds

Makhachev (-225) is the favorite to retain his title against Volkanovski (+185), per BetMGM New York sportsbook. The last match between the two was a must-watch affair that was awarded the Fight of the Night. Although the champion is the favorite, this fight will be a war that either fighter can win.

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Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Betting Predictions

Makhachev is a high-level grappler who is a more measured striker. The southpaw likes to feint his jabs, prefers kicking to striking, and uses his power and athleticism to cause havoc before shooting for incredibly accurate single-leg takedowns.

In their first meeting, the 31-year-old connected on 63% of his significant strikes to the head while landing 32% of his punches to the body. Makhachev landed 95 total strikes and converted 44% of his takedowns (4 of 9) in a razor-thin victory eight months ago.  

Volkanovski is a versatile fighter who excels at both striking and grappling. He uses stiff jabs and effective feints to land his powerful right hand, and his classic stance-switch entries set up his devastating hooks. A clinch specialist, he is proficient in unleashing blistering strikes or takedowns along the fence.

The 35-year-old struck paydirt on 53% of his significant strikes to the head against Makhachev in their first encounter and landed 30% of his punches to the body. Volkanovski connected on 164 total strikes but was unsuccessful on four takedown attempts.  

The reigning featherweight champion was adamant that he won the first fight against Makhachev and tweeted his desire for another opportunity to become a double champ after the bout.

"Just watched the fight, I definitely think I won 2,3 and 5. Surprised I didn't get my hand raised! Let's do the rematch, anywhere, anytime!"

Former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov believes Makhachev will prevail over Volkanovski again in the rematch.

"Islam is the world champion right now," Nurmagomedov said. "If somebody can make 155 and the UFC says this guy is the contender, who cares? But if they want Volk again, first fight it was very good, very competitive, but we know and their team knows we won. Unanimous decision, it was not even a split decision. It was a unanimous decision."

Betting Pick: Alexander Volkanovski

Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Betting Tips

Betting odds for this highly-anticipated lightweight championship fight are live at popular sportsbooks, including BetMGM, which has listed Makhachev as a -225 favorite. 

The most common bet type for this UFC fight is the moneyline, a wager on who will win the fight outright.

Considering how the current champion earned a unanimous decision win over Volkanovski at UFC 284 to retain the lightweight belt and his streak of 12 consecutive victories, Makhachev is the favorite. However, Volkanovski finished strong in their first fight and is our pick to notch the upset win. 

A $100 wager on Volkanovski at odds of +185 would net a total payout of $285.

The Over/Under bet is another popular type, where you wager on the number of rounds the fight will last. Given that Makhachev and Volkanovski went the distance in their first matchup, we do not expect the fight to end before the fourth round. 

Betting Over 3.5 rounds could be a winning pick.

When and Where is the Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Fight?

The five-round lightweight championship fight will take place on Saturday, October 21, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. UFC fans in New York can watch the fight live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.