Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 - Odds, Tips & Predictions for UFC 311

UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev will put his belt on the line against #1-ranked contender Arman Tsarukyan in the main event at UFC 311. The five-round title bout will take place on Saturday, January 18, at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

Makhachev (26-1-0) is riding a 14-fight win streak and successfully retained his belt with a brabo choke submission win over Dustin Poirier last summer. The reigning 155-pound champion has defended his title against several top UFC combatants, including Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira.

Tsarukyan (22-3-0) has won four consecutive fights since suffering a unanimous decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot in 2022. The Armenian earned a split decision win over Oliveira 10 months ago and notched impressive wins over Beneil Dariush and Joaquim Silva in 2023.  

In the co-main event, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) will defend his belt against #2-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0-0). 

Dvalishvili has won 11 straight fights, including victories over Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo. Nurmagomedov is unbeaten against a cast of unknown fighters but captured a unanimous decision win over Cory Sandhagen last August in Abu Dhabi.

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Odds

Makhachev (-450) is the favorite to retain his lightweight title against Asakura (+325), per BetMGM sportsbook. The challenger is a confident and hungry fighter with the skill set to take the champion to the limit. 

However, Makhachev is one of the UFC's top fighters and the challenger will not be an unknown adversary in this highly anticipated rematch.

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Betting Predictions

Makhachev is a versatile fighter who combines elite wrestling skills with powerful strikes and leg kicks. The 33-year-old has ended 46% of his fights with submissions, 35% via decisions, and 19% by knockouts.

The Russian titleholder lands 2.65 significant strikes per minute with an impressive 59% striking accuracy. The combat sando-style fighter averages 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy rate of 53%. Makhachev also thwarts an incredible 90% of his opponent's takedown attempts.

Tsarukyan is another well-rounded fighter with above-average wrestling and striking skills. The 28-year-old has finished 41% of his fights with knockouts, 36% via decisions, and 23% by submissions.

The Armenian contender averages a robust 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy rate of 37% and boasts an effective takedown defense that foils 75% of attempted takedowns. Tsarukyan lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute with a 48% striking accuracy.

Makhachev acknowledged that Tsarukyan had a good showing when the two butted heads for the first time in Saint Petersburg, Russia in 2019.

"Maybe I was underestimating (Tsarukyan) because it was short notice," Makhachev said. "Nobody knew him, he didn't have a name, and I'd never watched him fight. And he did well in that fight."

While Tsarukyan brought the element of surprise in his first encounter with Makhachev, the champion is confident that the rematch will vastly differ from their original matchup.

"The first fight, he defended my wrestling. He's tough, that's why he gave me a hard time," added the champion. "But now I know everything that he can do."

Although Makhachev has an impressive UFC resume, the challenger is confident he can dethrone the champion and walk out of the Octagon with the lightweight title.

"He's not as good as people think," Tsarukyan suggested. "People think he's unbeatable and has crazy wrestling, but I took him down when I was 22.

"First of all, I know how to wrestle very well. Second, I'm young. I'm young and hungry. I never had the belt. So that drives me, and I have a lot of energy for my training, and I believe that I'm the guy who is going to beat him."

This should be an entertaining fight for spectators, but given Makhachev’s experience, excellent defensive record and accuracy we think he’ll come out on top.

Betting Pick: Makhachev

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Betting Tips

Betting odds for this lightweight title fight are live on popular UFC sportsbooks, including BetMGM, which has Makhachev as the favorite. 

The most popular type of wager placed on UFC fights are moneyline bets. This is simply a bet on which of the two opponents you think will win the fight outright.

We don’t think the match will be easy for either fighter, but considering how the Russian champion has reeled off 14 straight wins since suffering his only setback almost a decade ago, Makhachev should be able to retain his belt. However, the Armenian challenger boasts a 9-1 card in his previous 10 fights since dropping a unanimous decision to the reigning title holder in 2019.

Makhachev is our pick to win the fight and a $100 wager on the reigning champion at odds of -450 would net a total payout of $122.22.

If you think the rematch favors Tsarukyan, a $100 wager on the challenger at odds of +325 would net a total payout of $425.

As well as betting on the outright winner, over/under bets are also popular with UFC fans. This means betting on how many rounds the fight will last, whether you think the total rounds will be over or under a certain number.  

Given that both fighters have never lost via submission, and neither have been defeated by a knockout since 2015, we don’t expect the fight to end in the early rounds. Our tip would therefore be to bet on the fight going over 3.5 rounds.

Betting Tip: Over 3.5 Rounds

When and Where is the Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan fight?

The five-round lightweight championship fight will take place on Saturday, January 18, at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. UFC fans in New York can watch the fight live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.