Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic - Odds, Tips & Predictions for UFC 309

Jones vs. Miocic
Published by NYSB Staff
Last Updated: 11. Nov 2024.

UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones will put his title on the line against #8-ranked Stipe Miocic in the main event at UFC 309. The five-round title fight will occur on Saturday, November 16, at Madison Square Garden in New York City.


Jones (27-1-0) submitted Ciryl Gane with a guillotine choke in the first round at UFC 285 in March last year to win the vacant heavyweight belt. The legendary MMA fighter has never been beaten, and his only professional setback resulted from a disqualification.

Miocic (20-4-0) was knocked out in the second round by Francis Ngannou in his last fight 44 months ago. The challenger has not lost to anyone not named Ngannou or Daniel Cormier since 2014.

In the co-main event, former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) and former three-time Bellator lightweight world champion Michael Chandler (23-8-0) will meet in a five-round rematch. Oliveira scored a second-round TKO win over Chandler three years ago at UFC 262.


Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds

Jones (-650) is the favorite to retain his heavyweight belt against Miocic (+475), per BetMGM sportsbook. The champion is a massive favorite to send the challenger into retirement, but Miocic is a dangerous opponent with heavy hands.


Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Betting Predictions

Jones is a versatile fighter with elite striking and wrestling skills. He combines a long reach and a high ring IQ with unique striking techniques that have baffled UFC adversaries since 2008. He has ended 37% of his fights with knockouts, 37% via decisions, and 26% with a decision.

The 37-year-old champion lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute with a 57% striking accuracy. Jones averages 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 45% takedown accuracy and boasts a stellar 95% takedown defense.


Miocic is a lethal striker known for his fast hands and excellent combinations. The former collegiate wrestler has finished 75% of his fights with knockouts and 25% via decision wins.

The 42-year-old lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute with a 53% striking accuracy. The Strong Style Fight Team fighter averages 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 34% takedown accuracy and stifles 68% of attempted takedowns.


Jones has implemented a new and improved training regimen that has the champion in phenomenal condition and excited about his upcoming title defense.

"240 pounds, fast and strong," Jones recently wrote on Instagram. "I used to walk around at 235 pounds as a light heavyweight. This almost feels like a light heavyweight fight without the weight cut."

The challenger is confident that he will be able to control the fight and leave "The World's Most Famous Arena" as the new heavyweight champion.

"I'm excited, honestly," Miocic said on 'BS w/ Jake Paul.' "It's finally here. It was supposed to happen last year, unfortunately an injury took it away, but here we are. We're weeks away. I'm ready, man. I've been pumped. I keep quiet. I focus on the task at hand, just worry about my fight. That's all I worry about.

"Jon Jones does a lot of things good, but I have great coaches, great teammates, and they make me prepared for whatever happens," Miocic added. "I'm not going to wait for what he's going to do, I'm going to do what I want to do."

Heavyweight contender and knockout artist Derrick Lewis believes the champion will easily dispose of Miocic in the opening round.

"I think Jones will beat him in the first round," Lewis said during the UFC Edmonton Media Day. "It's crazy to see a lot of people just disrespect Jones like that, like he ain't the G.O.A.T., for real.

"A lot of people keep throwing around these GOAT terms and this and that; Jones has been doing this for so many years at the top of the level against all these opponents - like top ranked guys," Lewis reiterated.  

The current Interim UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, who hopes to battle the winner, feels strongly that the challenger will shockingly upset the champion.

"I'd be looking for the knockout against Jon Jones is what I'd be looking for with him," Aspinall told SafestCasinoSites.co.uk. "I'd be trying to push him back and use his size.

"I think that Stipe Miocic has got big knockout power in comparison to Jon Jones. So I think he can knock him out."


Betting Pick: Jones


Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Betting Tips

Betting odds for this heavyweight title fight are live on popular UFC sportsbooks, including BetMGM, which has the champion as a hefty favorite. The most common bet type for this UFC fight is the moneyline, a wager on who will win the fight outright.

Considering how Jones has never been beaten inside the Octagon in 29 professional fights, "Bones" is the favorite to successfully retain his title. 

However, Miocic is a powerful striker and a decorated former champion with impressive wins over Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou, Junior dos Santos, and Alistair Overeem. The reigning titleholder is our pick to win the fight and a $100 wager on Jones at odds of -650 would net a total payout of $115.38.

If you like the challenger, and feel like an upset is on the horizon, a $100 wager on Miocic at odds of +475 would net a total payout of $575.

The Over/Under bet is another popular type, where you wager on the number of rounds the fight will last. Given that three of the champion's previous four fights have gone the distance, we do not expect the fight to end in the early rounds. Thus, betting Over 3.5 rounds could be a winning pick.


When and Where is the Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Fight?

The five-round heavyweight championship fight will take place on Saturday, November 16, at Madison Square Garden in New York City. UFC fans in the Big Apple can watch the fight live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.   


Heavyweight Clash: Can Miocic Upset Jones' Reign?

As UFC 309 approaches, fans and bettors alike eagerly anticipate this clash between heavyweight titan Jon Jones and formidable challenger Stipe Miocic. With Jones entering the Octagon as the heavy favorite, many see his unblemished record and versatile skill set as decisive advantages. However, Miocic’s power and veteran experience ensure that he’s not to be underestimated, adding intrigue and potential for an upset. 

Those looking to place bets on this thrilling matchup can explore top New York sportsbooks, like Fanatics and DraftKings, for a range of betting options, from moneyline bets to round totals. With both fighters ready to make history, this title fight promises high stakes, intense action, and exciting opportunities for fans looking to get in on the betting action.

Jones vs. Miocic FAQs

UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones is a massive favorite to retain his belt against #8-ranked Stipe Miocic at UFC 309. Jones is a -650 betting favorite, while Miocic is a whopping +475 underdog, per BetMGM.

Former UFC lightweight champion and #2-ranked Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) will battle former three-time Bellator lightweight world champion and #7-ranked Michael Chandler (23-8-0) in the co-main event. Other fights on the undercard include #9-ranked Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) and #11-ranked Karine Silva (18-4-0) colliding in a women's flyweight matchup, unbeaten middleweight Bo Nickal (6-0-0) squaring off against veteran grappler Paul Craig (17-8-1), and former UFC champion Chris Weidman (16-7-0) butting heads with Eryk Anders (16-8-0) in an intriguing middleweight encounter.

Bets can be placed during the fight as it is happening with live UFC odds that are constantly changing based on what's happening real-time inside the Octagon. The most popular types of in-play bettings are moneyline wagers representing the odds for who will win the fight outright. Other live betting types include the method of victory and how long the fight will last.

Mixed martial arts fans can place various bets on this UFC heavyweight championship fight at BetMGM, a popular sportsbook in New York.

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